FX fall by $127m, REER improves slightly

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KARACHI:

The foreign exchange reserves held by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) declined by $127 million to $10.6 billion during the week ended April 11, 2025, mainly due to external debt repayments.

According to the latest data released by the central bank, the country’s total liquid foreign reserves stood at $15.6 billion as of April 11. This total includes $10.6 billion held by the SBP and $5.1 billion held by commercial banks.

On the other hand, Pakistan’s Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER), which gauges the currency’s value against a basket of foreign currencies adjusted for inflation, improved to 101.62 in March 2025 from a revised 102.25 in February, according to data released by the SBP on Thursday.

A REER reading above 100 indicates reduced export competitiveness and relatively cheaper imports, while a reading below 100 suggests the opposite. The latest figures show a month-on-month decline of 0.62% in March, and a 2.38% drop compared to the same month last year, when the REER stood at 104.1.

Moreover, the Pakistani rupee recorded a slight depreciation against the US dollar on Thursday, falling by 0.06% in the interbank market. By the end of the trading session, the rupee closed at 280.62, down by 16 paisas from the previous day’s closing rate of 280.46, even though on the global front, the US dollar was on track for its fourth consecutive weekly decline, as concerns over tariffs prompted investors to move away from US assets.

However, the dollar did recover slightly from a seven-month low against the Japanese yen, with ongoing US-Japan trade discussions so far avoiding any focus on currency issues.

Meanwhile, gold prices continued their upward trend on Thursday, reaching a new all-time high in Pakistan. In the local market, the price of gold per tola rose by Rs2,000, hitting a historic level of Rs350,000 for the first time, according to the All-Pakistan Gems and Jewellers Sarafa Association (APGJSA).

This follows Wednesday’s sharp surge when gold prices jumped by Rs8,600 in a single day to reach a then-record of Rs348,000 per tola. On the global front, gold prices also saw an uptick on Thursday, with APGJSA reporting the international rate at $3,329 per ounce, marking a daily increase of $19.

Adnan Agar Director of Interactive Commodities said Gold prices surged to a fresh high of around $3,350 per ounce earlier today, before experiencing a pullback as the market saw some profit-taking. Following the peak, prices dipped to approximately $3,285, but have since shown signs of recovery, currently hovering in the $3,305 to $3,310 range.

The upward momentum triggered profit-booking among traders, leading to speculation that the market could witness further declines. Analysts suggest gold prices may drop to the $3,250 or even $3,230 levels if selling pressure continues.

With the international markets closed tomorrow in observance of Good Friday, trading activity is expected to taper off through the evening. The gold futures market is now set to resume on Monday, with subdued movement anticipated in the interim.

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